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Electrical equipment: the overall steady growth of the electric vehicle sector and obvious differentiation of the sector

Soochow securities


1) the overall performance growth of the electric vehicle sector slowed down: due to the decline in subsidies in June, the industry's non deduction net profit slightly increased by 5.90% on a year-on-year basis, and the growth rate in the third quarter further declined, with the non deduction profit declining by 18.15% on a year-on-year basis and 6.80% on a month on month basis

2) the plate differentiation is obvious. In terms of the year-on-year growth rate of non net profit deducted in the third quarter, lithium battery equipment and core are zero to avoid loosening; Parts, charging piles and other electric vehicle businesses accounted for a relatively small proportion of the sector with a good growth rate, while the upstream and downstream of lithium batteries and the whole vehicle declined significantly; Looking at the growth rate on a month on month basis, the profits of batteries and finished vehicles have rebounded significantly, and the upstream resources and cathode have declined significantly on a month on month basis: the order of year-on-year growth rate of non net profit deduction in the third quarter is lithium battery equipment>;;; Core parts>;;; Negative electrode>;;; Electric control of motor>;;; Charging point>;;; Midstream of battery>;;; Upstream resources>;;; Battery>;;; Positive>;;; Diaphragm>;;; Electrolyte>;;; Complete vehicle; The sequence of non net profit deduction month on month growth is vehicle>;;; Battery> therefore, the durability is slightly worse than that of the traditional concrete paving materials used in the main road;;; Lithium battery midstream>;;; Negative electrode>;;; Lithium battery equipment>;;; Core parts>;;; Diaphragm>;;; Electrolyte>;;; Motor power control in terms of unit production energy consumption;;; Charging point>;;; Upstream material>;;; Positive

3) in the third quarter, the receivable and inventory of the electric vehicle sector increased slightly, and the cash flow improved significantly year-on-year: in 2018, the net cash inflow from operating activities of the sector was 15.551 billion yuan, compared with the net outflow of 11.094 billion yuan in the same period last year. Compared with the beginning of the year, the inventory in the midstream segment of lithium battery increased slightly by 14%, while the advance payment increased by 57%. The fourth quarter of the industry was the rush season, and orders increased significantly. Affected by the weak demand for consumer batteries and the price reduction of upstream resources, the ending advance receipts decreased by 7.7% compared with the beginning of the year, and the inventory increased by 28.4% compared with the beginning of the year. The advance payment for the whole vehicle decreased by 60% compared with the beginning of the year, and the inventory increased by 39.1%, which is related to the decline in the demand for traditional vehicles

4) the advantages continue to focus on the leading enterprises: Electric plastics does not consider the extensibility pool link. Ningde times' operating performance has increased, and its cash flow has improved significantly. It is difficult for manufacturers below the second tier to make profits; Innovation in the diaphragm sector can still maintain a growth rate of more than 50%, while Zhongli, Jieli, Donggao, etc. have lost money; The profit of electrolyte sector declined significantly, and xinzhoubang could basically maintain stable performance

investment suggestions: we believe that the electric vehicle sector has been deeply corrected, and the expectation is low. At present, the inventory in the industry is not high. The passenger cars have been started in October, and the passenger cars have increased steadily month by month. In addition, the 19-year subsidy policy is expected to be introduced by the end of the year, and drive the rush to install in the fourth quarter. Therefore, we continue to be optimistic about the market of electric vehicles, and the midstream leader is expected to lead the rebound! Recommended battery tap; High quality leader in the midstream of lithium battery; Core components; High quality upstream resources cobalt and lithium

risk tip: the investment growth rate is declining, the policy is not up to expectations, and the price competition is higher than expected

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