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The investment in electrical equipment and new energy industry in 2010 needs to be kept sober

the growth of electricity investment in 2010 is not optimistic: the investment plan of Southern Power in 2009 is 88billion yuan, and the investment progress is in line with the plan; The national power investment plan guarantees 250billion yuan of investment within 15 working days. The planned UHV AC progress is lower than expected. The power expansion projects make up for the lack of the plan, and it is estimated that 260billion yuan of investment will be completed. DC projects and 750kV projects of state-owned companies have entered the peak of production, and strong smart power has entered the substantive pilot; The increase of sales price increases the investment capital, but excluding uncertain UHV AC projects, the projects in the "Eleventh Five Year Plan" can not guarantee the investment growth in 2010; Considering the decline in the prices of equipment and raw materials, the intelligent power pilot outside the 11th Five Year Plan and the uncertain UHV AC investment, it is estimated that China will invest 270billion yuan. With the investment of CNNC 80billion, the total investment scale of the two power companies in 2010 was 350billion yuan, which will be the same as that in 2009. Even if the investment of national companies reached 300billion yuan, the overall investment growth will be less than 10%. This brings serious challenges to the growth of power transmission and transformation equipment industry

the profit of main electric equipment is squeezed by both cost and price: the price of copper and aluminum, the main raw material, will rise, and the rise of copper price will only benefit the wire and cable industry; The price of domestic oriented silicon steel is expected to be maintained, and the import price is expected to continue to decline, which is beneficial to the transformer industry. The price of most of the main electrical equipment delivered in 10 years of bidding in 2009 has dropped by more than 30%, and the price of 110kV equipment may drop after centralized bidding. As a result of competition, only TBEA, Siyuan electric and Tianwei baobian substation are less affected

the decrease of thermal power is smaller than expected: the statistical results of thermal power and hydropower units put into operation in show that if the approved projects are put into operation on schedule and some of the projects to be approved are put into operation, the unit capacity put into operation in 2010 will decrease by less than 10%, which is very beneficial to the performance growth of the three major domestic power equipment companies

the policy of low-carbon economy is getting warm: after the Copenhagen conference, a large number of supporting policies will be issued, including the development plan for emerging energy industry, the benchmark electricity price for photovoltaic power generation, the adjustment of household electricity price and the increase of renewable energy surcharge, the guiding opinions on the development of polysilicon industry, China US cooperation and the 12th Five Year Plan

the new installed capacity of wind power is expected to increase by 30%: it is estimated that the new installed capacity will be 10million kW in 2009, an increase of 60%, and 13million kW in 2010, an increase of 30%. At present, the installation of class I and class II wind on land, including mold manufacturers, universities and preferred customers, has been basically completed, and the new installation is mainly in class III and class IV wind areas; The offshore beach coating machine will be piloted next year because the fan is still difficult to clean and immature. The localization rate of wind power components will be further improved

the PV industry has come out of the bottom: the growth of Germany and Italy has exceeded expectations. Considering China's policy support for PV, the global PV installation volume is expected to be raised to 5.44gw in 2009 and 7.7gw in 2010, an increase of more than 40%. The future prices of polysilicon and photovoltaic modules will still decrease slightly, which is conducive to the development of the photovoltaic industry

leapfrog development of nuclear power: China has become the country with the largest number of nuclear power projects under construction in the world. The nuclear power units planned by the power generation group are likely to exceed the planning objectives of the draft development plan for emerging energy industries, and the delivery of nuclear power equipment will double since 2010

investment strategy and industry rating: uni president smart power entered a substantial pilot stage in 2010. The sales price was adjusted and the renewable energy surcharge was increased, and the Transformation Fund of "one household, one meter" was guaranteed; The Copenhagen conference will usher in the era of low carbon economy. In 2010, the theme investment was the main theme, and the event driven stock was mainly driven by the extension of the industrial chain. We recommend the theme of financing restructuring, smart electricity and new energy, and pay attention to the theme of UHV. In the first quarter with abundant liquidity and the expectation of the 12th Five Year Plan at the end of the year, the recommended companies on these themes are expected to lead the market. We downgraded the industry investment rating to "leading market-b". Highlight Nari, XJ electric, Siyuan electric, Rongxin Co., Ltd., Kelu electronics, TBEA, Dongfang Electric and Goldwind Technology

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